Norwegian Jakob Ingebrigtsen, the reigning Olympic Champion over 5000m, has alluded in an Instagram post last August, post he wants to break 7 more world records. He currently holds 3:

• 2000 meters (4:43.13)

• 3000 meters (7:17.55)

• 1500m short track (3:30.60)

While these are short distances compared to the half marathon or marathon, his performances are making people wonder what he could do in longer races. Let’s use the Trenara prediction model to give us an insight on what might be possible.

Looking at his middle-distance times, the Trenara model says Jakob could run a half marathon in 58:56 and a marathon in 2:03:48. Now, even though running longer distances uses different muscles fibers and energy systems compared to what he's used to, these predictions show just how talented he is.

Breaking down the Trenara predictions

Half Marathon: 58:56

Running a half marathon in under an hour is a huge deal. The current half marathon record is held by Yomif Kejelcha, who ran it in 57:30 in Valencia. Jakob’s predicted time, 58:56, would put him in the top 10 of 2024. He only ran one half marathon so far, in Copenhagen last September, where he bonked and finished in 63:13. His middle-distance abilities don’t guarantee long distance success.

Marathon: 2:03:48

A marathon time of 2:03:48 would make Jakob one of the top 40 fastest marathoners ever. To compare, Kelvin Kiptum holds the world record at 2:00:35, set at the 2023 Chicago Marathon. So, Jakob’s prediction isn’t quite record-breaking, but it’s seriously impressive. As a reference: 2:03:48 is a just a bit slower than our compatriot Abdi Bashir (2:03:36).

Different challenges in long distance

It’s worth noting that shifting from middle-distance to long-distance running isn’t just about going for longer. It’s a whole new ball game. Middle-distance races like the 1500 and 5000m need a balance of speed and anaerobic power, but for races like the half marathon or marathon, you need serious aerobic power and efficiency over a long period. Jakob would have to tweak his training to build the stamina needed to keep up a fast pace over those longer races. That doesn’t necessarily mean he needs to run more volume (he already hits peaks up to 200k/week), but that the intensity distribution of his runs needs to shift.

That’s a caveat for all prediction models: we can’t consider the impact of the switch in energy systems between middle- and long-distance running. The new marathon World Record ran by Ruth Chepngetich (2:09:56) would equal a 1:52 800m performance – what would also be a world record, beating the unbreakable 1:53:28 by Kratochvílová. Of course, Chepngetich can’t run an 800m that fast, but it gives an idea of the relative performances.

The Big Question: middle-distance or long-distance?

The question remains: is Jakob going to stick with middle-distance running, or will he try his luck at longer races? Right now, it seems like his focus is still on middle-distance. That brutal encounter with the half marathon made him admit he overestimated what he could pull off: “I’m definitely not going to try (that) again for a couple of years.”.

But the potential for him to step up to half marathons or marathons is super exciting. With the right coaching and training, he could also become a world-class athlete in the road races. And whether he stays in middle-distance or moves into long-distance, one thing’s for sure: Jakob Ingebrigtsen will remain one of the big stars of the sport.

While most of us aren’t aiming to break world records (😅), Jakob’s story highlights the importance of proper training for the relevant distance. Don’t attack a marathon with a 5k fitness. Use Trenara to help you build your stamina slowly, but steadily!